Austin #1 - America's Fastest Growing Cities (Forbes)

If you haven't heard, Austin is getting bigger.... 

Texas State Capitol

Forbes rated the 100 largest MSAs based on Population Growth, 2012 Job Growth, Rate of Economic Growth (gross metro product growth). They also used federal Unemployment Data & Median Salary data.  They came up with their list of the 20 fastest growing metro areas in the US.  Texas leads the nation, again!  This is GOOD for Real Estate - but not so great for traffic.  ;}

"Perhaps not surprisingly, cities in Texas — which welcomed more than 427,000 newcomers from August 2011 to July 2012, according to the U.S. Census Bureau — dominated our list. Houston ranked second, behind Austin, followed by Dallas in third place and San Antonio in ninth. Robust labor markets, unemployment rates under 6% (well below the national average),no state income tax, a business-friendly regulatory environment, and strong population inflows all contributed to Texas towns’ high rankings."

1) Austin, TX

• M.S.A.: Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX
• 2012 Population growth rate: 2.8%
• 2013 Population growth rate: 2.7%
• Job growth rate: 3.1%
• Unemployment: 4.9%Gross Metro Product: 6.3%
• Median salary: $63,200

2) Houston, TX

• M.S.A.: Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
• 2012 Population growth rate: 2%
• 2013 Population growth rate: 2%
• Job growth rate: 3.4%
• Unemployment: 5.8%
• Gross Metro Product: 6.8%
• Median salary: $70,900

3) Dallas, TX

• M.S.A.: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• 2012 Population growth rate: 2.1%
• 2013 Population growth rate: 2.1%
• Job growth rate: 2.1%
• Unemployment:5.7%
• Gross Metro Product: 5.9%
• Median salary: $65,100

4) Raleigh, NC
5) Salt Lake City, UT
6) Seattle, WA
7) Provo, UT
8) Phoenix, AZ

9) San Antonio, TX

• M.S.A.: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• 2012 Population growth rate: 2.1%
• 2013 Population growth rate: 2%
• Job growth rate: 2%
• Unemployment: 5.6%
• Gross Metro Product: 4.1%
• Median salary: $56,900

10) Portland, OR
11) Washington, DC
12) San Jose, CA
13) San Diego, CA
14) San Francisco, CA
15) Boise, ID
16) Denver, CO
17) Oklahoma City, OK
18) Charlotte, NC
19) Bakersfield, CA
20) Ogden, UT


Full Text of Forbes.com Article

Austin #7 in Home Price Jump

Austin No. 7 nationally in home price jump

Austin Business Journal

Date: Tuesday, December 11, 2012, 6:54am CST

Enlarge Image

Austin home prices have risen 2.97 percent in the last year.

Home prices jumped 2.97 percent in Austin between the third quarters of 2011 and 2012, the seventh-highest change in the nation.

Using the Federal Housing Finance Agency scale that holds 1991's home prices at 100, Austin's prices rose from 196 on the index in the third quarter of 2011 to 201.83 in the third quarter of 2012,according to On Numbers.

The cities with prices that increased faster than Austin include Phoenix (9.53 percent); Cape Coral-Ft. Myers, Fla. (7.57 percent); Boise, Idaho (6.7 percent); Bakersfield, Calif. (4.47 percent); San Jose, Calif. (3.45 percent); and Modesto, Calif. (3.32 percent).

Link to Austin Biz Journal Article

Angelou says he's 'Bullish' on Austin's Economy

Economist Angelos Angelou says he's 'bullish' on Austin's economy, citing fast population growth, a rise in job opportunities and continued worldwide exposure to the city's entertainment offerings.

"Corporations are looking for the best workforce, entrepreneurial environment and young people and we've got all those here in Austin," said Angelou. 

Angelou spoke to a crowd of hundreds at the AT&T Conference Center on the University of Texas Tuesday morning. This is the 27Th year Angelou has given a forecast.

Angelou predicts 130,000 people will move to Austin over the next two years, putting additional demand on the area's real estate market. He forecasts double digit housing growth in the Austin area for the next three to four years, and he believes housing prices will increase.

He also predicts retail sales will grow by eight percent in the next two years and bring an additional 3,500 new jobs. Angelou says leisure, hospitality, education, health and tech industries will continue to grow.

Angelou forecasts that Austin will lead Texas in the biomedical field thanks to the newly approved UT medical school and teaching hospital. He said a $225 million dollar new VA hospital will also add to the growth in that field.

"Austin is the entrepreneurial center of Texas, and there will be a lot more ideas and new start-ups in the biotechnology sector in the years to come," said Angelou.

(From an article on KVUE.com)

Austin Ranks No. 2 on New Economic Index Ranking

360 Bridge in Austin, Texas

Austin ranks No. 2 out of the country’s 102 largest cities on a new economic index ranking.

According to the October 2012 version of the On Numbers Economic Index released Monday, Austin is ranked 2nd on the list behind Oklahoma City.

The index measures the relative economic vitality of all 102 U.S. metropolitan areas that have more than 500,000 residents. It is updated on the second Monday of each month.

The index is generated by an 18-part formula that assesses private-sector job growth, unemployment, earnings, housing-price appreciation, and construction and retail activity.  (See details below for information on how these numbers are determined.)

Here’s the listing for the top 20 cities. Texas Cities are in Bold.

Oklahoma City	91.14
Austin	86.69
Tulsa	80.50
Houston	77.08
Omaha	76.66
Denver	76.59
Columbus	74.68
Boston	74.48
Pittsburgh	74.28
San Antonio	73.34
Little Rock, Ark.	70.22
Durham, N.C.	69.09
Cincinnati	68.76
Dallas-Fort Worth	68.25
Louisville	68.17
Charleston, S.C.	68.10
Ogden, Utah	67.95
San Jose	66.14
Salt Lake City	63.72
Portland, Maine	63.27

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How The On Numbers are Calculated:

The On Numbers Economic Index is calculated once a month, based on the latest official statistics for all U.S. metropolitan areas with estimated populations above 500,000. The index is designed to show the relative economic strength of those 102 major metros.

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SOURCES

All raw data come from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and are the latest available figures as of the second Monday of the current month.

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TYPES OF CALCULATIONS

The formula for the On Numbers Economic Index has 18 components. They fall into four general categories:

• Five-year changes are calculated between the latest available data and the corresponding data for the same month (or quarter) five years ago.

• One-year changes are calculated between the latest available data and the corresponding data for the same month (or quarter) one year ago.

• Long-term trends are calculated over five one-year intervals: between the same month (or quarter) five years ago and four years ago, between the same month four years ago and three years ago, between the same month three years ago and two years ago, between the same month two years ago and one year ago, and between the same month one year ago and now. Those five percentages are then combined into a single score.

• Current rates are the latest rates available.

FORMULA COMPONENTS: These are the 18 components of the formula for the Index:

1.       Five-year change in private-sector employment.

2.       One-year change in private-sector employment.

3.       Long-term trend in private-sector employment.

4.       Five-year change in unemployment rates.

5.       Current unemployment rate.

6.       Long-term trend in unemployment rates.

7.       Five-year change in weekly earnings per private-sector worker.

8.       One-year change in weekly earnings per private-sector worker.

9.       Long-term trend in weekly earnings per private-sector worker.

10.   Five-year change in construction-sector employment.

11.   One-year change in construction-sector employment.

12.   Long-term trend in construction-sector employment.

13.   Five-year change in retail-sector employment.

14.   One-year change in retail-sector employment.

15.   Long-term trend in retail-sector employment.

16.   Five-year change in house values. (House values are updated quarterly. All other factors are updated monthly.)

17.   One-year change in house values.

18.   Long-term trend in house values.

 Link to ABJ article

New Home Sales Surge

New single-family home sales in December rose to their highest level in eight months and prices were the highest since April 2008, raising cautious optimism for a housing market recovery.



Housing Starts & Sales Up

 The Commerce Department said sales jumped 17.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted 329,000 unit annual rate after a downwardly revised 280,000-unit pace in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales rising to a 300,000-unit pace in December from a previously reported 290,000 unit rate. Compared to December a year earlier, sales were down 7.6 percent. Overall 2010 sales dropped 14.4 percent to a 321,000-unit rate.


Economists saw the gains as significant.
"Clearly we are seeing stabilization in new home sales and this data suggests some upward momentum that we have seen in existing home sales. What is important to realize is even in a period of softer new home sales, inventory continues to decline, said Dean Maki, chief U.S.. economist with Barclays Capital in New York.
“The level of inventory is at its lowest since the 1960s," Maki said. This suggests the big declines in housing starts are now behind us and housing starts should be on a gradual trend in 2011.”

Brian Bethune, an economist with HIS Global Insight in Lexington, Mass added: "It's meaningful to the extent that there is a pattern of numbers showing increases. It's a sign that there is a turnaround. Things are definitely perking up, but there is a question whether it's sustainable.

Read the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS®: December Existing-Home Sales Jump

Source: "New Home Sales Surge in December," Reuters(Jan. 26, 2011)

Austin 26 out of 150 world cities for recovery: Where are the Jobs? Welcome to Jobstown, USA

First impressions mean a lot.

As soon as I got off the plane at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport I could tell this place was different from nearly all the mid-size US cities we have visited since the beginning of the Great Recession.

It was close to midnight and the tarmac was crowded with aircraft parked nearly wing-tip to wing-tip.

The morning rush was going to be huge. Business travelers would be on the move.

Make no mistake - find a city where businesspeople are travelling and I'll show you a city where money is being made. Welcome to Jobstown, USA.

A study by the Brookings Institution and the London School of Economics ranks Austin 26 out of 150 world cities in its ability to recover from the recession well ahead of places like Dallas (39), New York (77), San Francisco (129) and Las Vegas (146). No other US city is experiencing faster job growth than Austin (2.4 percent per year).Over the course of three days, CBS News visited a number of firms to try and figure out what's behind Austin's success as a job generator and if there is anything other American cities can learn from their example.

Here are some things we noticed right away: The place is loaded with young talent. There is venture capital pouring in from all over the world (especially the Persian Gulf). There is a sense that anything is possible. And finally, there is openness to new ideas - no matter how off the wall. In many ways, Austin has the same feel as Palo Alto, California did as it was morphing into what the world knows as "Silicon Valley."

There are negatives in Austin too, for example an infrastructure that's not close to being ready for the crush of people that's flooding the area (avoid the Loop during rush hour at all costs!). The town also remains largely dependent on Texas state government and education for its job base (22 percent of jobs, versus 18% across all U.S. metro areas).

Still, we were left with a sense that Austin represents a model many American cities may need to follow if they are to fully recover from the recession and be competitive in the global economy.


From a tiny toy company struggling to get on its feet to an international tech giant creating thousands of new jobs, CBS News Senior Business Correspondent Anthony Mason gives you an inside look at Jobstown, USA tonight on the CBS Evening News with Katie Couric. We invite you to watch.

CBS News w/ Katie Couric

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Austin highest-rated recovery in U.S / 26th in the World

Austin was ranked as having the 26th best economic recovery worldwide, the highest rank of all U.S. cities, a report from the Brookings Institution said Tuesday.

The analysis ranked 150 cities according to three main indicators between 1993 and 2010: employment growth, per-capita gross value added and income per person. The group said Austin employment has grown 3.2 percent between 2009 and this year, while income has escalated about 2.7 percent.

Austin came in No. 40 for growth between 2007 and 2009, clocking in about 0.1 percent employment growth, but a 3.1 percent decline in income. The city was the 25th fastest growing economy between 1993 and 2007, elevating employment about 3.1 percent and income about 3.4 percent.

The local population has growth about 67 percent since 1993 to about 1,763,192 people, according to the report.

Istanbul, Turkey was the highest ranked city worldwide, though Asian cities dominated the listing. Austin edged out Montreal at No. 27, but was just below Sao Paulo, Brazil.

Read more: Austin highest-rated recovery in U.S., Brookings says
Austin Business Journal

Austin 2nd of 40 Strongest US Ecomonies!

Austin-Round Rock, TX
Overall rank: 2

Austin, a high-tech center, is also home to the University of Texas. Employment in the Austin metro peaked in the fourth quarter of last year. Gross metropolitan product peaked in the second quarter. Home prices grew 2.5% in the second quarter compared with the same period a year earlier. And the unemployment rate in June was 7.1%, up 2.6 points from a year earlier. (Please see below for the various criteria used by the Brookings Institution to determine the overall ranking.)

Job growth (since peak) rank: 2
Gross Metro Product (since peak) rank: 2
Unemployment change (year over year) rank: 16
Home price change (year over year) rank: 18

1) San Antonio, TX
2) Austin/Round Rock, TX
3) Okalahoma City, OK
4) Little Rock/Conway, AR
5) Dallas/Ft.Worth/Arlington, TX
6) Baton Rouge, LA
7) Tulsa, OK
8) Omaha,NE/Council Bluffs, IA
9) Houston/Sugarland/Baytown, TX
10)El Paso, TX

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HOW DID THEY DO IT?

Employment and Economic Muscle
Using data and analysis from the Brookings Institution's new MetroMonitor study, BusinessWeek.com ranked the nation's top 40 economies based on job growth, employment, economic growth, and home prices. And Texas seems to be the clear winner with San Antonio at the top of the list and five metros in the top 10. To see which metros made the list, read on.

The Brookings Institution ranked the 100 largest metros by averaging the ranks for four key indicators: employment change, unemployment change, gross metropolitan product, and home price change. Employment was measured by the change from the peak quarter for each metro to the second quarter of 2009. The peak was the quarter in which the metro had the most jobs during the past five years. Unemployment was ranked by measuring the percentage-point change from the first quarter of 2009 to the second quarter of 2009. Gross metropolitan product was measured from the peak quarter to the second quarter of 2009. And the ranking of home prices compared the second quarter of 2009 to the previous quarter. The employment data were provided by Moody's Economy.com, the unemployment data were collected from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the home price index came from the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
By Prashant Gopal
Source: The Brookings Institution's MetroMonitor

Austin cited as one of the next "youth-magnet" cities

According to the Journal, "Austin has become a gathering place for tech- and arts-conscious young adults." The paper also lauded Austin for its cultural attractions like the Austin City Limits Music Festival and South by Southwest. But some of those polled by the Journal expressed concern over how strongly Austin will bounce back from the recession.

What do Washington D.C., Seattle, New York, Portland and Austin all have in common? They are the five cities that top a new Wall Street Journal poll on where young people are likely to flock once economic recovery takes hold.

The Journal polled a panel of experts, from demographers to economists, on where young college graduates are likely to congregate in coming years. Austin ranked fifth on the list with the lowest unemployment rate of the five cities and a relatively high median household income. The Capital of Texas didn't fare quite so well as the others on the education front, with 41.8 percent of 25-35 year olds holding a bachelors degree or higher compared with 61.3 percent in Washington and 64.2 percent in Seattle.

The top 10 post-recession boom towns for the young and ambitious:

1. (tie) Washington D.C.
1. Seattle
3. New York
4. Portland
5. Austin
6. San Jose, Calif.
7. Denver
8. Raleigh-Durham, N.C.
9. Dallas
10. Chicago

Austin Business Journal

2009 Austin Area Market Update - Alamo Title

While homeowners nationwide have watched their home values plummet, the Central Texas real estate market has fared much better in comparison. Economic forecasters now say a looming housing shortage will increase real estate prices within the next two years.

With the relatively healthy local economy encouraging continued population inflows to Austin, economic consultant Angelos Angelou forecasts demand to soon outstrip supply, a theory consistent with current real estate sales absorption rates (see attached).

Angelou estimates newcomers move to Austin at a rate of approximately 42,000 per year. New residents coupled with a decrease in the number of new home starts locally may lead to a shortage over the next few years, he said. Three years ago, we were building at the pace of 18,000 a year, but last year, only 8,100 were built; this year, only 6,000 new homes will be built.

Angelou said this is an ideal time to buy, and that current sellers may consider waiting for increased demand and prices in the upcoming housing shortage.
Like in January and last fall, the number of transactions per month are still down as many borrowers face difficulty securing financing and investors wait for signs of confidence in the markets. Austin-area prices remain stable and affordable, and properties are selling, on average, after just 83 days on market.